View from the CIO

Dr. Carlos Mejia CIO, Rothschild & Co Bank AG

Where did it come from?

The concept of a metaverse has been around since the early 1990s. In Neal Stephenson’s 1992 novel Snow Crash, the author depicts a 3D virtual urban world developed along a single road (the Street) where users, via headsets, appeared virtually as avatars. The concept of a single virtual space in which users can access goods and leisure, work, socialise and even teach is therefore not new. In reality, however, the internet as it stands today does not support such seamless interoperability; how many User IDs and Passwords do you need to navigate the web and its services in 2022? – too many.

Where is it found today?

In today's world, elements of the Metaverse do exist particularly in the eGaming sector. Epic Games' Minecraft or Fortnite offer users much more than just the chance to play video games – they have developed social communities around virtual worlds where users can log-in to interact with one another and even attend virtual concerts – think US artist Travis Scott playing virtually to 12 million people in real time during lockdown April 2020. More recently platforms such as The Sandbox or Decentraland have seen virtual plots of land sell for as high as $4.3m USD (as at December 2021). But these platforms are not interoperable and the technology behind them from headsets to the look and feel of augmented reality, remain clunky.

Why is it interesting to companies?

The global market for revenues in the Metaverse was forecast at USD $6.1bn in 2021. That is set to grow by some 8x by 2026 to $42bn4 with the overall market size for the Metaverse estimated to be some $476bn by 20255 (see Chart 1).

4 Strategy Analytics: Business Insider, 18.12.21

5 Macquarie Research, PWC, 10.11.21

Although historically the Metaverse market has revolved around gaming software and hardware, a growing proportion of revenues is coming from live entertainment such as concerts and sports events as well as social media generated revenue. A breakdown of some of the different components driving the growth of Metaverse generated revenues are illustrated here (Chart 2):

What does it mean for investors?

With Big Tech and Communication giants committing large sums of capital to developing Metaverse, we agree with our colleagues at equity research house Redburn that:

"..owing to its ‘open’ standing definition it seems inevitable that those companies who capitalise on the opportunity soonest will take the largest slice of the profit"6

6 Come Together: Welcome To the Metaverse, Redburn Review, December 2021. Nina Marques.

We do however think that the technology which sits behind the development of the Metaverse is arguably more important for investors to understand than the forum itself - whatever that may look like in the future. Seamless website interoperability, single user access points and real time continuous communications will bring about a radical overhaul of the current internet, bringing new opportunities far beyond the world of video gaming. You only need to look at Microsoft's Mesh to see how Metaverse-led technology will have a wider impact on the way we work in a hybrid / virtual world. But the road to monetising good ideas is rarely straight forward and companies will need to develop, invest and test technology over many years – we do not expect this journey to be linear. As mentioned on a recent call with our Global Advisory business:

"The US is structurally positioned to lead in the development of the Metaverse and Europe will follow. Today the metaverse is where the current internet was in the 1990s. We know that it will emerge and that one day we will be having meetings in the metaverse. It will be a success but for now we must wait."*

Returning to our investment teams, it is important to understand the technological advances which are coming with the Metaverse, just as with those seen in the arrival of Blockchain technology. Only once these are understood can their impact on our clients' investments be explained in turn.

*Virginie Lazes, Co-Head of European Technology, Global Advisory, Rothschild & Co

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